EMERSON COLLEGE: DONALD TRUMPS NEW HAMPSHIRE; BATTLE FOR SECOND BETWEEN BUSH AND KASICH AS DEBATE FALLOUT CONTINUES. SANDERS WELL AHEAD OF CLINTON.

EMERSON COLLEGE: DONALD TRUMPS NEW HAMPSHIRE; BATTLE FOR SECOND BETWEEN BUSH AND KASICH AS DEBATE FALLOUT CONTINUES.  SANDERS WELL AHEAD OF CLINTON.

EMERSON COLLEGE: DONALD TRUMPS NEW HAMPSHIRE; BATTLE FOR SECOND BETWEEN BUSH AND KASICH AS DEBATE FALLOUT CONTINUES. SANDERS WELL AHEAD OF CLINTON. 

(Boston, MA, Feb. 8, 2016) With the New Hampshire primary happening tomorrow, a new Emerson College statewide survey shows Republican Donald Trump poised to win in the Granite State with 31% of likely GOP primary voters. The battle is on for second place, with the next four candidates separated by just 5 percentage points: Jeb Bush (16%), John Kasich (13%), Marco Rubio (12%) and Ted Cruz (11%). In the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders maintains a lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 42%. 

The survey, conducted from Thursday until late Sunday afternoon, reflects how voter sentiment fluctuates in response to fast-moving events. On Friday, following the Democratic debate, Sanders had a significant bump in his daily numbers to 61%, while Clinton fell to 34%. However, Clinton bounced back by Sunday, closing the gap. 

Volatility also characterized the GOP race during this same period. Trump skidded from 37% on Thursday to 22% on Saturday. However, he surged to 33% on Sunday, following his GOP debate performance. Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday.

Bush and Kasich have the highest favorability ratings among likely GOP primary voters. Bush’s differential is +17 (55% favorable, 38% unfavorable). Kasich is +15 (52% favorable, 37% unfavorable), and Rubio’s margin is +10 (50% to 40%). Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are nearly equal (49% to 46%). Among the top GOP contenders, only Cruz is in negative territory, with a -21 rating (35% favorable, 56% unfavorable).  

On the Democratic side, Sanders leads Clinton in four out of five age categories. Among the 18-34 group, Sanders has a 41-point lead (69% to 28%). Voters 35-54 favor him 55% to 43%, and those 55-74 give Sanders an 11-point edge, 52% to 41%. Voters 75 and older give the nod to Clinton, 53% to 43%. Sanders’s appeal also cuts across gender lines. Clinton holds a slim edge, 49% to 48%, among women voters, whereas Sanders holds a 2-1 advantage with men, 62% to 31%.

Chris Kane, a senior Political Communication student and Co-President of ECPS, said the polling team will look at how Cruz, the winner in Iowa, does on Tuesday, given recent GOP history. “Will his trajectory look more like George W. Bush, who won Iowa in 2000 with 41%, lost to John McCain by 19 points in New Hampshire, and then rallied to win the GOP nomination? Or will Cruz share the fate of Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012? They were far-right conservatives who won in Iowa, but tanked in New Hampshire and never recovered.”

 

Caller ID                  

The ECPS poll was conducted from Thursday evening February 4 through Sunday afternoon February 7. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters purchased through Aristotle Inc. Likely primary voters were classified through a screening question. For non- completes with a working residential phone line, at least six callbacks were attempted. The Democratic and GOP Presidential primaries consisted of 783 and 686 adult registered likely primary voters in New Hampshire, with a margin of error of +/-3.4% and +/-3.7%, respectively, at a 95 percent confidence level. A total of 1532 were sampled for the additional statewide questions at +/-2.4%. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system and weighted based on 2012 General Election voting to reflect likely voter populations in New Hampshire. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com

                    

For further information or questions about methodology, contact Professor Spencer Kimball, ECPS polling advisor, at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

 
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